Crazy Joe's 2012 Fantasy Advice

[CrazyJoe79]

Take it or leave it, I'm gonna give you some advice in the next week or so that could help you win your fantasy league!! Let's start with this...

5 PLAYERS I WON'T BE DRAFTING THIS YEAR

A.J. GREEN
Don't get me wrong, the dude is super talented. However, outside of Gresham, there are no other receiving options there. Not to mention that he has to go up against two of the better corners in the business twice each (Webb in Baltimore and Haden in Cleveland). He'll put up his numbers, he's too talented not to, but his current ADP (Average Draft Position) of WR4 is way too high for my taste.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER
Big Ben has thrown over 30 TDs just once in his career, and he's averaged just over 20 TDs a season over his career. He's been the most sacked QB in the league over the past 4 seasons, Mike Wallace is holding out for more cash, and Big Ben recently revealed his rotator cuff is a "little torn." The guy is an iron man, but he can only get beat up for so long before it starts catching up to him for good.

CAM NEWTON
Cam Newton had a rookie season unlike any other. 14 rushing TDs would be damn solid for a running back, for a quarterback, it's sick! Comparatively, Michael Vick - who is often hailed as the best running quarterback of all time - followed up his amazing 9 rushing TD season of 2010 with just ONE last year. Carolina also just paid Jonathan Stewart big money, after paying DeAngelo Williams last season, pointing to a renewed commitment to the run. Could Cam do it again? Absolutely, but I'm gonna let someone else draft him in the 2nd round and find out.

REGGIE BUSH
Bush was super hyped coming out of college, and up until last year, had only shown flashes of the skills that everyone expected from him. Up until last year, he had never rushed for over 600 yards. The Dolphins have a new staff, new offensive scheme, and with a healthy Daniel Thomas and a talented Lamar Miller also there, I expect more of a time share this season. Bush is still super dangerous in the passing game, and isn't too overvalued as a RB2, I just can't see taking him at his current draft position of 59 overall.

VICTOR CRUZ
Nicks and Manningham were the focal points of opposing defenses last year, but Cruz will see much better coverage on him now. Unlike Fitzgerald, Calvin, Roddy, and even Nicks, Cruz doesn't have the skill set to overpower defenders, so there's a good chance that when opposing defenses want to shut him down, they will. 72 yards, 99 yards, 74 yards, 68 yards, 74 yards -- Those were 5 of Victor Cruz's 9 TDs last season. There's just no way he can repeat those long touchdowns, so let someone else draft him as WR10.

[det2orl]

Right there with you on Cam. I think he is great but his #'s were so incredible last year its hard to imagine him duplicating them.

Green (and Dalton) snuck up on a lot of people last year. Defenses have their full attention this season.

[LionSB06]

I agree with all of those except Im a big fan of Green. I have him right around the 5-6th best WR though not 4th but think he's going to be a damn good option.

[GF-22a]

Screw you guys bad mouthing Cam

[RickFromFowler]

I actually think Newton is going to be better.

I'll take my chances with Green and Cruz also..

I've been off Ben and Reggie for 3 years now..

[CrazyJoe79]

DRAFT TIP #1
Kickers and defenses should ALWAYS be picked in your last 2 rounds! In fact, if you're doing a live draft, and your league doesn't require you to pick one ahead of time, don't draft a kicker at all!

First off, you can't predict seasons for kickers. Last year, the best kicker was David Akers, who was 32 points better than the 2nd overall kicker. But no one outside of San Francisco even drafted him. And the difference between the 2nd overall scoring kicker and 16th scoring kicker was a mere 29 points (1.7pts per week). But more important than the fact that kickers are a dime a dozen, you're potentially missing out a breakout player. For example, in our Sports Inferno fantasy league last season, Stephen Gostowski was taken in the 12th round last year at pick 141 overall. Not a big deal, until you consider that the very next pick was Jordy Nelson, who ended up being the #2 scoring wide receiver last season! Antonio Brown and DeMarco Murray went a round or two after as well. In 2010, same Sports Inferno league, Stephen Gostowski was also the first kicker taken in Round 10 at pick 109 overall. A couple of players who went after him that season -- Dez Bryant, Darren McFadden, and a little running back out of Houston named Arian Foster!!

Defenses are also rather unpredictable. The number one defense overall last season was San Francisco (Also undrafted in most leagues). The difference between the #2 defense and the #12 defense was 36 points (2.1 per game). Sure that 2 points could be the difference between a weekly win or loss, but when you consider that the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans and Bengals all went undrafted in most leagues, while finishing in the top 12, is it worth the high pick? In the Sports Inferno league last season, SIX defenses went in the 8th/9th rounds. Along with the aforementioned Brown, Murray and Nelson - Willis McGahee, AJ Green, Marshawn Lynch & Fred Jackson also all went after the first defenses were taken.

Instead of taking a kicker or defense this year, I suggest take a backup/handcuff running back. Take Isaiah Pead in St. Louis or Jacquizz Rodgers for the Falcons. You may need to dump them to pick up a Week 1 kicker, but if Steven Jackson or Michael Turner gets a season ending injury in the preseason, you just scored yourself a starting running back in the last round! Why not purchase that lottery ticket? You might just get lucky!

[LionSB06]

DRAFT TIP #1
Kickers and defenses should ALWAYS be picked in your last 2 rounds! In fact, if you're doing a live draft, and your league doesn't require you to pick one ahead of time, don't draft a kicker at all!

First off, you can't predict seasons for kickers. Last year, the best kicker was David Akers, who was 32 points better than the 2nd overall kicker. But no one outside of San Francisco even drafted him. And the difference between the 2nd overall scoring kicker and 16th scoring kicker was a mere 29 points (1.7pts per week). But more important than the fact that kickers are a dime a dozen, you're potentially missing out a breakout player. For example, in our Sports Inferno fantasy league last season, Stephen Gostowski was taken in the 12th round last year at pick 141 overall. Not a big deal, until you consider that the very next pick was Jordy Nelson, who ended up being the #2 scoring wide receiver last season! Antonio Brown and DeMarco Murray went a round or two after as well. In 2010, same Sports Inferno league, Stephen Gostowski was also the first kicker taken in Round 10 at pick 109 overall. A couple of players who went after him that season -- Dez Bryant, Darren McFadden, and a little running back out of Houston named Arian Foster!!

Defenses are also rather unpredictable. The number one defense overall last season was San Francisco (Also undrafted in most leagues). The difference between the #2 defense and the #12 defense was 36 points (2.1 per game). Sure that 2 points could be the difference between a weekly win or loss, but when you consider that the 49ers, Seahawks, Texans and Bengals all went undrafted in most leagues, while finishing in the top 12, is it worth the high pick? In the Sports Inferno league last season, SIX defenses went in the 8th/9th rounds. Along with the aforementioned Brown, Murray and Nelson - Willis McGahee, AJ Green, Marshawn Lynch & Fred Jackson also all went after the first defenses were taken.

Instead of taking a kicker or defense this year, I suggest take a backup/handcuff running back. Take Isaiah Pead in St. Louis or Jacquizz Rodgers for the Falcons. You may need to dump them to pick up a Week 1 kicker, but if Steven Jackson or Michael Turner gets a season ending injury in the preseason, you just scored yourself a starting running back in the last round! Why not purchase that lottery ticket? You might just get lucky!

I always make my last 2 picks a K and D. Never understand why people start drafting them in the 8th rd in a lot of drafts.

[det2orl]

I always make my last 2 picks a K and D. Never understand why people start drafting them in the 8th rd in a lot of drafts.

I sometimes will pick a d earlier if its one of the consistently great ones (PIT, BAL). But Joe is right you always can find a top ranked d on the wire after the first couple weeks.

Never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever take a kicker before your last pick. Picking one earlier is just plain ruh-tarded.

[RickFromFowler]

I guess that depends on how your league's scoring system works and how many teams are in your league.

Our 18 team league, the best kicker put up 432 points, the #18 kicker put up 212 points. That's 200 points over a 16 games season or 12.5 points per matchup.

Average margin of victory was 26 points.. so the kicker alone could account for nearly half of the points in those losses.

Top Defensive Lineman scored 516, Top LB 382, Top DB was 476. Top WR 813, Top RB 952, Top QB 1612.

In a league where if you don't have a Top 5 offensive skill position player, you better focus on piling up all those little 10 and 15 point advantages you can find.

[ak_1982]

I guess that depends on how your league's scoring system works and how many teams are in your league.

Our 18 team league, the best kicker put up 432 points, the #18 kicker put up 212 points. That's 200 points over a 16 games season or 12.5 points per matchup.

Average margin of victory was 26 points.. so the kicker alone could account for nearly half of the points in those losses.

Top Defensive Lineman scored 516, Top LB 382, Top DB was 476. Top WR 813, Top RB 952, Top QB 1612.

In a league where if you don't have a Top 5 offensive skill position player, you better focus on piling up all those little 10 and 15 point advantages you can find.

That sounds like the worst scoring system of all time.

[LionSB06]

That sounds like the worst scoring system of all time.

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