Now, on to the Minors, where all the short-season leagues have begun. Let's take a look:

GCL Tigers
...

Okay, so here is a quick, unscientific look at how well the recruiting sites predict future success. There are tons of different ways to look at this, and my method is woefully inadequate, but hopefully we’ll get a general idea. The records at Scout and Rivals go back to 2002. I'll try to take a look at ESPN soon, but their damn 100-point system makes comparisons difficult.

So, basically I just looked at the first-round draft picks in the NFL going back to 2005 and saw how each site rated them. Here are the results:

2005 Draft – There were only seven players from this draft in the two sites’ databases.

Rivals – 4 four-stars, 1 three-star, 2 two-stars
Scout – 1 four star, 4 three stars, two unrated players

The two sites disagreed about every one of these players:

Alex Smith (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Adam Jones (02) Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Troy Williamson (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Mike Williams (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Shawne Merriman (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Fabian Washington (02) - Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Aaron Rodgers (03) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*

2006 Draft – Eight of the players taken in the first round of the 2006 Draft were 2001 recruits, and thus, there was no official ranking for them at any of the sites. Of the 24 remaining players drafted that year:

Rivals – 5 five-stars, 13 four-stars, 4 three-stars, 2 two-stars
Scout – 6 five-stars, 8 four-stars, 3 three-stars, 2 two-stars, 5 unrated players

The two sites agreed on 12 players. The disagreements were as follows:

Reggie Bush (03) – Rivals 5*, Scout 4*
Donte Whitner (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Broderick Bunkley (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
Antonio Cromartie (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Laurence Maroney (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 2*
Manny Lawson (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Davin Joseph (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Jonathan Joseph – (04) Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Santonio Holmes (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
John McCargo (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
De’Angelo Williams (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
Nick Mangold (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
...

Not a terribly stellar group here.

A reminder that I cobbled together a lame letter/number system as a method of ranking each prospect, with the letter indicating what the player's ultimate ceiling is, and the number indicating the odds of him reaching his potential, with 1 being very likely, and 5 being not so much.

A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year.
B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers.
C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game.
D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men.
E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters.


Top 20 Position Prospects

1 - Nick Castellanos - 3B - GCL - 6'4, 200 (19) - A/3 – Castellanos was a consensus top-20 player in the 2010 draft, and many considered him the among the best high-school bats in the draft. He has terrific hands and bat speed, and has shown a willingness to wait on pitches and take them the other way. He projects for at least average power, with a chance to hit 25-30 homers a year in his prime, and though he currently has average speed, he’s likely to be below average as he fills out his frame. He has more than enough arm strength to stick at third, and though he’s still raw defensively, he possesses the athleticism to be at least an average MLB third sacker. At this point, the main question about his game is what kind of hitter he’ll become. He’s Don Kelly thin right now, with skinny legs and broad shoulders, but his frame can easily handle 15-20 pounds of muscle. If and when he gains weight, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his line-drive approach, or if he begins to sell out for a bit more power. He figures to begin his first full season of professional ball in West Michigan.
...

Hey! Tired of this Michigan coaching search nonsense and looking to waste some time? Why not spend a few minutes reading about Tigers pitching prospects written by a random fan with no training in scouting or prospect evaluation! Hooray!

A reminder that I cobbled together a lame letter/number system as a method of ranking each prospect, with the letter indicating what the player's ultimate ceiling is, and the number indicating the odds of him reaching his potential, with 1 being very likely, and 5 being not so much.

A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year.
B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers.
C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game.
D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men.
E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters.

Top 20 Pitchers

1 - Jacob Turner - RHP - High-A - 6'5, 210 (19) - A/2 – By any objective measure, Turner’s first season of professional baseball was a rousing success. He spent the first half of the year in low-A West Michigan, where he posted a solid 3.29 FIP before being promoted to high-A Lakeland. Despite being the youngest pitcher in the Florida State League, Turner shook off a rough start (13 ER in his first 12 IP) to finish with a dominant 10-game stretch, going 4-1, 1.28 with 32 H, 10 BB, and 41 K in 49.1 IP. He has a plus fastball that currently sits at 92-93 with solid movement, and touches 95. It has hit 98 in the past, and most project him to sit at 94-95 in another year or two. Turner’s curveball already flashes as a plus pitch, and has the potential to be a plus-plus offering in time. He can throw it in the zone as a knee-buckler, or start it in the zone and bury it in the dirt to get swings and misses. Turner’s changeup is a third solid pitch, with the potential to be a plus offering in time. His control is more advanced than Porcello’s was at a similar stage of development, and he projects to have at least average major league command. With added strength and further refinement of his secondary pitches, Turner should be a legitimate #1 starter, with a floor no lower than a #3. He may return to Lakeland to begin the year, but he’ll definitely reach Erie at some point during the season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him take the mound in Detroit in a late-summer doubleheader.
...