 Never trade young pitching
What the Tigers got:
Renteria isn’t “one of the best Shortstops in the game” like Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said Monday. Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, Jimmy Rollins, Michael Young, Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes all had better VORP (which is very efficient when comparing players at the same position, like now) scores over the last 3 years (Two things to note about that time: all three years were in Renteria’s prime and Ramirez only played in two of those seasons and still had much better numbers). Also, Troy Tulowitzki is also a good bet to have a better season than Renteria next year. Renteria is not “one of the best Shortstops in the league.” There is a first tier with Jeter, Hanley and Rollins. Then, there is a second wave with Tejada, Young and Reyes. Then, there’s Renteria.
But, Renteria is a 32 year-old that is owed $20M over the next two seasons. He is a player with a career OPS+ of 97 (league average is 100). He did have an OPS+ of 125 in ’07, which, because that is so far higher than his career average, means that despite a statistical anomaly or the fountain of youth, he is bound to come back to earth. In simpler words, unless your name is Barry Bonds, players don’t get better as they get older after 30.
One thing to like about Renteria is that he is a tremendous fielding Shortstop. He makes the Tigers infield defense one of the best in the American League immediately. If Maybin learns to play LF real well or the Tigers get a plus fielder in left, then they don’t have a weak link out there.
What the Tigers gave up:
Uh, a lot.
I really think Jair Jurrjens is going to be a very good starting pitcher. Considering his age, he did some amazing things in the minor leagues. One would be his proficiency in not putting men on base. In ’05, at the age of 19, he posted a 1.18 WHIP in 142.2 IP in A-ball. In ’06, at the age of 20, he posted a 0.86 WHIP in 73.2 IP in High A-ball. In ’07, at the age of 21, he posted a 1.27 WHIP in 112.2 IP in AA-ball and a 1.14 WHIP in 30.2 IP in MLB. He has always pitched in advanced leagues for his age and has posted some crazy good WHIPs. He has MLB experience and is MLB rotation ready for ’08. The Braves are ecstatic to have him.
I’d be lying if I said I knew a lot about Gorkys Hernandez. Most would. It is impossible to project what a 19 year old kid will turn into. He’s played a season and a half of pro ball. Nobody knows what will come of him. Yes, he was a GCL All-Star, but that was at the age of 18. To project him as anything (beside fast, he stole 54 bases in ’07), would be irresponsible.
Final take on the trade:
I don’t like it.
The Tigers are trading for Renteria when he is worth the most. They are buying high, a bad thing to do if you’re an MLB GM. They are also trading good, young and cost controlled pitching, the dumbest thing in the game considering where the free agent market is for pitchers.
A few questions:
Why did they have to make this trade so early? The champagne isn’t even dry on the Boston Red Sox World Series shirts yet and they are finalizing deals? Did they even try bargaining? Why didn’t they wait and act like they were going to get into the ARod sweepstakes if Atlanta didn’t drop their demands? The Jurrjens and Hernandez package is too much to give up for a 32 year old SS who doesn’t walk or have power and makes $10M. They should’ve at least tried to haggle for less than two of their top five organizational prospects (that is suicide).
Also, if the Tigers didn’t mind giving up Jurrjens and Hernandez, why didn’t they throw another prospect (like Tata or De La Cruz) into the package and try to get Johan Santana or Miguel Cabrera, who are both on the market because of their teams financial status?
By the way, Baseball Prospectus rated the Tigers Farm System as #16 in March. They just traded away two of their top five prospects. Now, they are top heavy with Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and Rick Porcello. Outside of that, the closet is bare.
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