Fantasy Football 2007: Top 10 Busts PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Mike Valenti   
Tuesday, 14 August 2007

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Before reading on you gotta understand what my definition of a bust is. Simply put, it’s a guy who doesn’t live up to his draft position by a large enough margin to annoy the bejabbers out of you by season’s end. With that said here is my list.

 

1. Larry Johnson RB/KC—Not a doubt in my mind on this one. All the signs are pointing for a downturn with LJ in the upcoming year.

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Is Johnson Overrated?
First of all the teams O-Line took another hit with the retirement of Will shield as well as the defection of Trent Green. Secondly, look at the history of RB’s after they have carried the ball 400+ times in a given year….not good. Add to all of this that the Cheifs still don’t have a weapon on offense not named Gonzalez and it’s a recipe for underachievement.

Final Call: Go ahead, take him at No2 or No.3, I’d rather have Addai or Gore.

2. Brandon Jacobs RB/NYG—This pick is based on a few factors. For one I don’t think the Giants will be very good up front this season with the loss of LT Luke Pettitgout. Secondly Jacobs is a change of pace back, not an every down horse. At 6’4 265 he is simply to big to take the punishment of an every down guy. I doubt his ability to play every snap and also wonder how effective he will be with the Giants trailing in a lot of games this fall.

Final Call: Jacobs is being selected ahead of the likes of guys like Reggie Bush and Thomas Jones. I say go with the known production over a physical specimen with ZERO track record.

3. Randy Moss WR/NE—While many see this as a huge move for the Patriots it doesn’t really make me all warm and fuzzy fantasy wise. Moss just might be the best decoy in the league as leg and lower body injuries have robbed him of his once freakish ability. He’s simply being taken too high and the way New England plays won’t change…spread the ball around is still the calling card.

Final Call: While Moss is a great name who will have a good season, I don’t see him out doing the likes of Mr. Colston or Mr. Driver, whom he is being taken over in most mock drafts.

4. Cedric Benson RB/CHI—While many are touting Benson
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How will he handle life without TJ?
as a solid sleeper I am not so convinced. He cannot stay healthy and has never had the full support of the staff or vets on the team. From reports in Chicago there is growing sentiment that if Benson struggles early he will be replaced by super sub Adrian Pederson as well.


Final Call: Chicago got rid of the wrong back. I like Benson but I don’t love him. How are people taking him over guys like Edge and Portis?

5. Chad Johnson WR/CIN—Now don’t get me wrong, I love Ocho Cinco. Heck he might be my favorite personality in the league…but that doesn’t matter. The Bengals are using Johnson in the slot more with the improvement of TJ Hazbaddallahboobadoola…you know the name and more importantly so does Carson Palmer. Johnson has all the tools to lead the league in every category yet he’s never tallied more than 10 TD’s.

Final Call: Too inconsistent to take over machines like Holt and Owens. A great player and one I would own, but not worth taking high second when you could get the afor mentioned duo top 3rd.

6. Peyton Manning QB/IND—Now don’t go blasting me until you read this.

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BUST!
Manning will have a good year, hell a great one. But guess what? So will several other QB’s taken substantially lower in the draft. Manning is a flat stuff who you would be dumb not to take….but not in the late first round like he is going in many mock drafts.

Final Call: While Manning is a stud, guys like Brees, Brady and Palmer will put up similar numbers for a fraction of the cost.

7. Warrick Dunn RB/ATL—Let me be clear. I don’t like Warrick Dunn. I’ve never liked Warrick Dunn. I will never like Warrick Dunn. I hate backs who don’t score and he is king of that castle. Throw in off season surgery, a new offensive scheme, and a coach who prefers bigger backs….bye-bye small fry.

Final Call: the fact that he is being drafted in the Top 60 shows the ignorance of the people in your league….don’t be that guy. Grab Norwood two rounds later and laugh your way home.

8. Jamal Lewis RB/CLE—Danger, danger, danger…I’d rather leave the spot empty on my roster than draft this guy. Looked horrible last season and now goes to a team with a weaker line, weaker QB, and weaker defense? Uh yeah, let someone else mess with this clown.

Final Call: Would you seriously take this guy over Drew Brees and Carson Palmer? Really, people are…I swear.

9. Vince Young QB/TEN—I hate writing this about a player I absolutely love Image but it’s got to be done. Vince is what I call a fantasy fraud. His numbers last year were skewed by his running and he tricked many of you. He was the second worst passer in the game and threw more at risk passes than anyone in the league…yes that is a stat. Add to this the loss of Travis Henry and Drew Bennett and I am scared stiff.

Final Call: Fun to watch…on someone else’s roster. Being taken over guys like Romo, Rivers and Hasselbeck….smarten up.


10. Jerry Porter WR/OAK—Now this guy is a real peach. Not only does he play for Oakland as their No.2 but he is a complete nutbag to boot. I truly doubt his impact this season and his draft position is way overblown considering who he plays for and under.

Final Call: Who would you rather have? Santana Moss or this pile? Hines ward or this pile? Vincent Jackson or this pile? You catch my drift?




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MSUJSCHOOL04 Author | 2007-08-14 22:03:56
Mike,

Peyton is always the only QB taken in the first 10 picks, though.

Oh, quick question. Would you go Bush, McAllister as your first two backs? I know Bush will get more carries than last season, but Duece will still get his, Plus, Bush put up receiving numbers last year some No. 1s don't put up.
klemetsa - Christmas in August Registered | 2007-08-15 00:48:40
Christmas in August

AHHHHH Yessss! August is upon us. Get out the wrapping paper, hang those stockings, and don't forget to leave out some milk and cookies! Christmas is here. At least for any person that dares to call themselves a fan of the great sport that is football. No not Beckham ball. Good ole fashioned, meathead, testosterone injected, American football.

Sure everyone associates the Super Bowl as the biggest day of the year for football. You can't argue with the largest annual event in America, but if that is the biggest day of the football season, August has to be the best month for football fans, and no regular season NFL games even begin until September. So how can the eighth month of the year possibly be considered football's golden month? I explain....

Every football fan has uttered the words along the lines of "I know I could do a better job than a coach or general manager" for their beloved teams. August is the month when these over ambitious beliefs have a chance to actually materialize. Fantasy Football and the release of Madden gives every football nerd the opportunity to throw on the power tie, shine up the wing tips, and put on their GM hat to build a football dynasty.

I think it is safe to say I have done more research crafting a strategy and spreadsheet for my fantasy teams this year, than I did for about 90-percent of my finals at MSU. Really makes me question that 15-grrr a year on tuition. But with that being said, did Organismal Biology ever make my body tingle like a 15 eyeing his first playboy, I don't think so. That may be a sad microcosm for my life, that fantasy football gives me a sense of titillation, but I can't help it I am a football fan, and this is August. It's like when you couldn't wait for December 25th as a kid. You just knew the latest Ninja Turtles action figure was waiting for you under the kix-strung tree. For weeks, you looked at the Toys-R-Us catalog just envisioning how you are going to kick some Shredder ass once you unwrap that green greatness. Fantasy football is the same way. It brings grown men, to act like mere children. They....correction, we....read fantasy football insider magazines just like the Toys-R-Us catalog. A football fan's fantasy mag is an English professor's Dickinson or Vonnegut. It's dissected, analyzed, and critiqued over and over, as if we were trying to suck the life out of every page. Because if you read it just once, you may miss the secret detail that will put your team on top, and make you the envy of your friend, co-workers, and family.

But fantasy football is only the beginning. Upping the nerd meter another notch, football fans count down the days for the arrival of another Fat White Man bearing the gift of all gifts....MADDEN, the football Santa. Football fans covet the release of the most recent Madden game, like the Sahara yearns for rain. Again, it's grown men salivating from their football mouths waiting all summer for midnight on the second Tuesday on August to get their hands on a box, like a 40 year-old-virgin. Parties are planned, work is skipped, and sleep is nothing but an after thought, so football junkies nationwide can start working on becoming the Madden Bobby Fischer. It is all a part of Christmas in August.

AND STILL NO FOOTBALL HAS BEEN PLAYED......YET!

The Pre-season... sticking with my puberty laden analogies... is like getting to second base, it gets the blood flowing, but no true release. Don't get me wrong, I love seeing the rooks take the field for the first time. Watching Calvin Johnson fly smoothly above the former U of M standout Leon Hall's head to snagg his first catch as a Lion, was a near tear jerking experiencing. Amazing. But when he is out a series later, I am left wanting more. It's the best idea for a movie ever! I literally can't wait for the next installment of "The Johnson Ultimatum" opening August 18th against Cleveland. But it almost doesn't matter because football is still being played. No it may not count, but as a Lions fan (also applies for Texans, Chiefs, and Dolphins fans) that almost is better. We may lose, but I know in 3 weeks, that loss will be erased. It's a new season within a season.

August's Rudolph is John Clayton leading the football Sleigh. Camp updates, negotiation talks, and injury reports, make everyone feel like they are being guided to inside information the other 30 million ESPN viewers don't have. NFL films is football's "It's a Wonderful Life," and egg nog and candy canes, are replaced with Beer and Chips.

This is August, this is heaven, this is Christmas, and I am making my way to the artificial turf to make grass angels. It's the most wonderful time of the year.
jdstephens Registered | 2007-08-19 17:32:50
I agree with your list for the most part. Not so sure about LJ though. Yea the O-Line is pretty suspect and no Green or a descent go-to reciever will also hurt. But I think LJ is a freakin stud. He should put up good enough numbers. No definantly not the numbers he put up last year but good enough. I do agree that he isn't worth the 2nd or 3rd pick overall in fantasy drafts. I ended up getting him with my 5th pick and I would much rather of had Steven Jackson, Frank Gore or even Brian Westbrook.
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