A quick, unscientific look at how well the recruiting sites predict future success

Okay, so here is a quick, unscientific look at how well the recruiting sites predict future success. There are tons of different ways to look at this, and my method is woefully inadequate, but hopefully we’ll get a general idea. The records at Scout and Rivals go back to 2002. I'll try to take a look at ESPN soon, but their damn 100-point system makes comparisons difficult.

So, basically I just looked at the first-round draft picks in the NFL going back to 2005 and saw how each site rated them. Here are the results:

2005 Draft – There were only seven players from this draft in the two sites’ databases.

Rivals – 4 four-stars, 1 three-star, 2 two-stars
Scout – 1 four star, 4 three stars, two unrated players

The two sites disagreed about every one of these players:

Alex Smith (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Adam Jones (02) Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Troy Williamson (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Mike Williams (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Shawne Merriman (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Fabian Washington (02) - Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Aaron Rodgers (03) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*

2006 Draft – Eight of the players taken in the first round of the 2006 Draft were 2001 recruits, and thus, there was no official ranking for them at any of the sites. Of the 24 remaining players drafted that year:

Rivals – 5 five-stars, 13 four-stars, 4 three-stars, 2 two-stars
Scout – 6 five-stars, 8 four-stars, 3 three-stars, 2 two-stars, 5 unrated players

The two sites agreed on 12 players. The disagreements were as follows:

Reggie Bush (03) – Rivals 5*, Scout 4*
Donte Whitner (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Broderick Bunkley (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
Antonio Cromartie (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Laurence Maroney (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 2*
Manny Lawson (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Davin Joseph (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Jonathan Joseph – (04) Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Santonio Holmes (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
John McCargo (02) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
De’Angelo Williams (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
Nick Mangold (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR

2007 Draft - The first round of the 2007 draft contained:

Rivals –5 five-stars, 17 four-stars, 7 three-stars, 3 two-stars
Scout – 6 five-stars, 14 four-stars, 3 three-stars, 5 two-stars, 4 unrated players

The two sites agreed on 20 players. The disagreements were as follows:

JaMarcus Russell (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Calvin Johnson (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Joe Thomas (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout NR
Gaines Adams (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Patrick Willis (03) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Adam Carriker (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout NR
Justin Harrell (02) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Jarvis Moss (03) – Rivals 5*, Scout 4*
Michael Griffin (03) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Brandon Meriweather (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Anthony Spencer (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout NR
Ben Grubbs (02) – Rivals 3*, Scout NR

2008 Draft - The first round of the 2008 contained:

Rivals – 5 five-stars, 11 four-stars, 6 three-stars, 7 two-stars, 2 unrated players
Scout – 7 five-stars, 7 four-stars, 6 three-stars, 7 two-stars, 4 unrated players

The two sites agreed on 18 players. The disagreements were as follows:

Chris Long (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Darren McFadden (05) – Rivals 5*, Scout 4*
Glenn Dorsey (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Vernon Gholston (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Jerod Mayo (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Brandon Albert (04) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Gosder Cherilus (03) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Felix Jones (05) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Rashard Mendenhall (05) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Chris Johnson (04) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR*
Antoine Cason (04) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Lawrence Jackson (03) Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Kentwan Balmer (04) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*

2009 Draft - The first round of the 2009 contained:

Rivals – 6 five-stars, 12 four-stars, 6 three-stars, 7 two-stars, 1 unrated player
Scout – 8 five-stars, 5 four-stars, 7 three-stars, 11 two-stars, 1 unrated player

The two sites agreed on 20 players. The disagreements were as follows:

Tyson Jackson (04) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Darrius Heyward-Bey (05) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Michael Crabtree (06) – Rivals 4*, Scout 2*
Brian Orakpo (04) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Brian Cushing (05) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Jeremy Maclin (06) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Brandon Pettigrew (04) – Rivals 2*, Scout 3*
Michael Oher (05) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Peria Jerry (04) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Donald Brown (05) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Kenny Britt (06) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*
Evander Hood (05) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*

2010 Draft - The first round of the 2010 contained:

Rivals – 5 five-stars, 14 four-stars, 7 three-stars, 6 two-stars
Scout – 6 five-stars, 14 four-stars, 5 three-stars, 6 two-stars, 1 unrated player

The two sites agreed on 26 players. The disagreements were as follows:

Sam Bradford (06) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Russell Okung (06) – Rivals 3*, Scout 4*
Anthony Davis (07) – Rivals 4*, Scout 5*
Ryan Mathews (07) – Rivals 3*, Scout 2*
Jason Pierre-Paul (07) – Rivals 2*, Scout NR
Kareem Jackson (07) – Rivals 4*, Scout 3*

So, that was a lot of names, and numbers, and *s that don't really tell us much. I did one more thing, regarding 5-star players:


See the Rest of ChrisBrown's analysis here