Ranking the Detroit Tigers Pitching Prospects

Hey! Tired of this Michigan coaching search nonsense and looking to waste some time? Why not spend a few minutes reading about Tigers pitching prospects written by a random fan with no training in scouting or prospect evaluation! Hooray!

A reminder that I cobbled together a lame letter/number system as a method of ranking each prospect, with the letter indicating what the player's ultimate ceiling is, and the number indicating the odds of him reaching his potential, with 1 being very likely, and 5 being not so much.

A - MVP and Cy Young candidates. Aces, and guys who are All-Stars every year.
B - Above-average players, #2 Starters, and Closers.
C - Average regulars, #3-4 starters, setup men. Might back into the AS game.
D - 5th starters/swingmen, specialists, extra outfielders, backup catchers, and utility men.
E - Quad-A players, pinch-hitters, emergency starters.

Top 20 Pitchers

1 - Jacob Turner - RHP - High-A - 6'5, 210 (19) - A/2 – By any objective measure, Turner’s first season of professional baseball was a rousing success. He spent the first half of the year in low-A West Michigan, where he posted a solid 3.29 FIP before being promoted to high-A Lakeland. Despite being the youngest pitcher in the Florida State League, Turner shook off a rough start (13 ER in his first 12 IP) to finish with a dominant 10-game stretch, going 4-1, 1.28 with 32 H, 10 BB, and 41 K in 49.1 IP. He has a plus fastball that currently sits at 92-93 with solid movement, and touches 95. It has hit 98 in the past, and most project him to sit at 94-95 in another year or two. Turner’s curveball already flashes as a plus pitch, and has the potential to be a plus-plus offering in time. He can throw it in the zone as a knee-buckler, or start it in the zone and bury it in the dirt to get swings and misses. Turner’s changeup is a third solid pitch, with the potential to be a plus offering in time. His control is more advanced than Porcello’s was at a similar stage of development, and he projects to have at least average major league command. With added strength and further refinement of his secondary pitches, Turner should be a legitimate #1 starter, with a floor no lower than a #3. He may return to Lakeland to begin the year, but he’ll definitely reach Erie at some point during the season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him take the mound in Detroit in a late-summer doubleheader.

2 - Andy Oliver - LHP - AAA - 6'3, 210 (23) - B/2 – Tigers fans got a glimpse of Oliver’s potential last year, but they also saw that he has a way to go before he realizes that potential. He posted solid if unspectacular numbers in AA Erie and AAA Toledo last year (9-8, 3.45), but he was overmatched in the Majors. Oliver throws two fastballs, with his 4-seamer sitting in the 93-94 range and hitting 97 with relative ease., and his 2-seamer sitting at 91-92 with solid movement. Oliver shows good arm action and deception on an 80-84 mph changeup, and the pitch figures to be at least an average Major-league offering, with the potential to be a fringe-plus pitch. His slider was once considered his best pitch, but it disappeared on him, and he lost confidence in his ability to throw any breaking pitches. The slider came back a bit last year, and while some hope it can return to being a plus pitch, it’s probably unlikely to ever be more than an average offering. Oliver currently has below-average control and command, but both should be average in time. What Oliver needs most is to continue to refine his secondary stuff, preferably with at least 100 innings in Toledo. His current ceiling appears to be as a #3 starter or a dominant late-inning reliever, though he still has a chance to be better than that.

3 - Chance Ruffin - RHP - College - 6', 185 (22) - B/3 – Detroit’s second supplemental round pick in 2010, and the son of former big leaguer Bruce, Ruffin’s professional debut came in the form of 9.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. A former starter, Ruffin offers a four-pitch mix, but the Tigers drafted him as a reliever and want him to concentrate on refining his 91-95 mph fastball and sharp slider. The slider is a true plus pitch, though some worry that professional hitters won’t chase it as much as college batters did. His curve and changeup both lag well behind, but he can break them out to keep hitters off balance. He projects for above-average control and command, and though his stuff may be a tad short to close games, he certainly has the mental toughness to fill that role. He’ll likely begin as the closer in Lakeland, but he’s advanced enough that he also figures to see time in Erie and Toledo next season, with an outside shot of pitching in Detroit.

4 - Drew Smyly - LHP - College - 6'3, 190 (21) - C/2 – Detroit nabbed Smyly with the 68th pick in the 2010 draft, and in many ways, he’s the complete opposite of what they typically target in pitchers. His height and lanky frame do offer a bit of projection, but for the most part he’s a lefty who going to offer average velocity on his fastball, sitting at 89-91 and occasionally spiking to 93. He also throws a solid slider/cutter, and he can mix in an average curve and changeup. Though Smyly’s stuff doesn’t wow, it all plays up thanks to plus control and command. He can locate his fastball anywhere he wants it, he commands his secondary pitches well, and he is very adept at mixing his pitches and changing velocity. He’ll begin the year in Lakeland, and though some see a guy who could develop into a #3 starter, the more likely scenario is that he becomes a solid #4-5.

5 - Jose Ortega – RHP – AA – 5’11, 165 (22) – B/3 – Ortega is the prime example of why my method of prospect evaluation is lacking…at this point last year I knew next to nothing about the kid, because I’ve never seen him pitch, and scouting reports were lacking. But information is out there now, and it’s very encouraging. Ortega is quite small, but that doesn’t prevent him from consistently throwing 94-97 with life and deception. He backs up his fastball with a good slider that frequently flashes as an above-average pitch, and could be plus in time. With no changeup to speak of, Ortega is strictly a reliever, but with continued improvement to his control and command, he has the potential to be a closer. The Tigers added him to their 40-man roster this offseason, though he figures to split his time between the bullpens in Erie and Toledo.

See the rest of the rankings here