The Millen Drafts Sucked

31-84... That is the Lions record (as of 09/22/2008) during the Matt Millen era.

An era defined accurately defined as the worst 8 consecutive years in NFL history.

Where lies the blame ? Was this a coincidence of injuries ? Perhaps a plane crash or catastrophic team illness ?

No.. the blame here rests with talent.. or lack there of. Lack of talent on the field.. lack of talent coaching the players on the field.. lack of talent managing the team.. lack of talent owning of them.

A fish rots from the head down. As owner of the team, William Clay Ford holds ultimate responsibility for the failure of his team. William Clay Ford's NFL legacy will be he was one of the worst owners in the history of the game. The history book will clearly display 43 seasons, 9 post season appearance, 1 post season win. Zero Super Bowl Appearance.. the only pre-merger NFL team which hasn't moved to not make an appearance in the NFL Championship Game.

But how did a team which had always been bad, get horrific ?

What follows is a statistical review of the 8 NFL drafts which the Lions have participated under the leadership of Matt Millen.

In order to understand how poorly the Lions have drafted, we must first establish a system by which to evaluate each player.. and then compare that evaluation against alternative choices.

We will use an A-B-C-D-E-F system.. see appendix A for detailed explanation of grading.

Of the 59 players drafted by the Lions in the 2000 through 2007 drafts.. only 9 players graded out an A. 5 players graded out a B. 7 players graded out a C. 13 players graded out a D. 8 players graded out to an E. 15 players graded out to an F. 59 picks, only 35% turned out to be NFL average or better.

To truly understand the depth of this ineptitude, we must compare it to the players which were available when Matt Millen/Detroit Lions picked. This will be done in two ways.

The first way will compare whom the Lions took.. with the next 3 players selected. Hindsight being 20/20, it would be unfair to compare each draft with everyone whom was drafted later.. there will always be a diamond in the rough which comes later. However.. the players selected immediately following were players obviously other teams were aware of and the Lions should have been also. This is a measure of the Lions ability to evaluate best player available at that point in the draft.

The second way will compare whom the Lions took with the next 3 players selected at that position. Obviously, these 3 players represent what the NFL consensus felt were the next 3 players available at that position. This is a measure of the Lions ability to evaluate the quality of the player in the position.

Each of these selections was also graded on an A-B-C-D-E-F system, see appendix B for detailed explanation of the grading.

And this is where Millen's ability to evaluate talent gets even worse and more apparent.

When comparing the Millen's picks to the 3 following picks of the same years draft, you find of the 59 picks, only 8 Millen picks graded out as an A. 3 B's, 15 C's, 13 D's, 14 E's and 6 F's. That means Millen exceeded expectations with only 11 of 59 selections; met expectations 15 of 59 times and fell below expectations with 32 of 59 selections. A 19% success rate and a 55% failure rate.

When comparing Millen's picks to the next 3 players selected at the same position in the same years draft, you find only 7 Millen picks graded out as an A. 7 B's, 21 C's, 12 D's, 8 E's and 4 F's. Of the 59 picks only 14 Millen picks exceeded expectations. 21 equaled expectations and 24 fell below expectations. A 23% success rate and a 41% failure rate.

When competing for talent, the Matt Millen's picks for the Detroit Lions are substandard 50% of the time.. its no wonder the team is inept. They have no talent.

APPENDIX A :

An A player will be a quality NFL starter who exceeds the NFL average in season's played and starts a minimum of that number of games started. This means a minimum of 56 games started in the NFL.


A B player will achieve 75% of the A player.. A minimum of 42 games started in the NFL. and a career of at least 3.5 seasons (56 games active).


A C player will achieve 30% of the A player.. A minimum of 16 games started in the NFL. and a career of at least 3.5 seasons (56 games active).


A D player will have at least 8 games started in the NFL and/or a career which equaled 2 seasons (32 games active).


An E player will have at least 1 least 1 NFL game started and/or a career which lasted at least 1 season (16 games active)


An F player will have zero NFL games started and/or a career which lasted less then 1 NFL season (16 games active)

APPENDIX B :

An A grade = the selection of an A player.

A B grade = the selection of a B player when no A player was available.

A C grade = the selection of an C/D/E/F player when no A/B player was available (if C/D) or no C/D player was available (if E/F). In other words, he picked a player of equal caliber to the other players available.

A D grade = the selection of a B/C player when an A player was available. Or the selection of a D/E player when a B/C was available.

An E grade = the selection of a D/E player when an A player was available, or the selection of an F player when a B/C was available.

An F grade = the selection of an F player when an A/B player was available.